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Responding to Stick

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 13 December 2010, at 12:32 a.m.

In Response To: Five Mochy-Peever Rollout Results Posted (Stick)

I did not take the racing position (the first one shown below). I passed it. I mentioned that the score at which the racing position arose was 1-0. I also showed another position from the same match at which the score was 2-0. This would have been enough info for some people to conclude that I passed the racing position.

Just for the helluvit, I rolled out a few racing positions and I am posting the rollout results below. When I showed these positions to someone, he commented that White has different crossover counts in these posted positions.

For many years, I have been struggling in my attempt to grasp the concepts of crossovers and crossover count. I recently asked someone to please explain these terms and he told me that Stick gave the following defintion: "By crossover count, I mean the number of times I have gone out in public in women's clothing during the current month." Did he quote you accurately?

is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 72
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 81
score: 0

is Player 2
XGID=-B--CDD---A--A-----dfcb---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 80.00% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.00% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.97% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.03% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.600
Double:+1.199
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.884 (-0.116)
Double/Take:+1.075 (+0.075)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 1 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.001 (+0.883...+0.885)
Confidence Double: ± 0.001 (+1.074...+1.076)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 29.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 72
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 80
score: 0

is Player 2
XGID=-B--CDD---A-A------dfcb---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 78.04% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.96% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.04% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.96% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.561
Double:+1.122
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.847 (-0.145)
Double/Take:+0.992
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.008)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.844...+0.850)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.988...+0.996)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 72
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 80
score: 0

is Player 2
XGID=-B--CDD--A---A-----dfcb---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 78.24% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.76% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.25% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.75% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.565
Double:+1.130
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.850 (-0.147)
Double/Take:+0.997
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.003)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.847...+0.852)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.993...+1.001)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 93.8%
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 72
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 81
score: 0

is Player 2
XGID=----CEF-A----------dfcb---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.20% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.80% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.15% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.85% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.544
Double:+1.086
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.828 (-0.120)
Double/Take:+0.948
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.052)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.826...+0.831)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.945...+0.952)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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