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Responding to Chiva

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Tuesday, 14 December 2010, at 7:28 a.m.

In Response To: Responding to Chiva (Rich Munitz)

Paul wrote: 'In the long run you will roll double sixes 1/36 of the time. If you have been rolling double sixes less than 1/36 of the time in the short run, then you will have to roll 66 more than 1/36 of the time to catch up to make it average 1/36 in the long run.' Ok, this is how this works: step one you roll 66 zero times in 36 shakes. step two: to compensate you roll 66 two times in the next 36 shakes. Is that all? No, not so easy: If the dice had a long term memory, you would roll exactly on 66 in the next 36 shakes. However, we all know this is not what happens. What happens in reality is that dice dont remember what you rolled in step one. They only remember the last step, step two in this case. Since you rolled 66 twice in step two, you guaranteed to roll no 66 in the next 36 shakes. And so on, and so on. Notice that when -- not if -- this pattern continues, probability of rolling 66 approaches exactly 1/36. You may ask:'Well, what if you roll another set of 66 in step 3?' In this case, it would mean that the dice decided to continue step 2 and step 3 will follow shortly. :-)

Messages In This Thread

• Five Important Factors to Consider in Evaluating Racing Cubes
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 12:58 a.m.
  • Five Important Factors to Consider in Evaluating Racing Cubes
    Henrik Bukkjaer -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 1:23 a.m.
    • Asses have more memory
      svilo -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 3:43 p.m.
      • Asses have more memory
        poseidon -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 4:03 p.m.
        • Asses have more memory
          Chiva Tafazzoli -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 8:21 p.m.
          • Asses have more memory
            poseidon -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 9:41 p.m.
            • Asses have more memory
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 10:33 p.m.
              • Asses have more memory
                Chiva Tafazzoli -- Tuesday, 14 December 2010, at 8:43 p.m.
  • Five Important Factors to Consider in Evaluating Racing Cubes
    Chiva Tafazzoli -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 2:01 a.m.
    • Responding to Chiva
      Paul Weaver -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 2:44 a.m.
      • Responding to Chiva
        poseidon -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 1:07 p.m.
      • Responding to Chiva
        Chiva Tafazzoli -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 1:13 p.m.
      • Responding to Chiva
        Rich Munitz -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 5:56 p.m.
        • Responding to Chiva
          Sam Pottle -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 7:07 p.m.
        • Responding to Chiva
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 14 December 2010, at 7:28 a.m.
          • Responding to Chiva
            Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 14 December 2010, at 1:52 p.m.
          • Responding to Chiva
            Bob Glass -- Wednesday, 15 December 2010, at 1:06 a.m.
  • Five Important Factors to Consider in Evaluating Racing Cubes
    phil simborg -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 5:17 a.m.
    • Five Important Factors to Consider in Evaluating Racing Cubes
      Michael Petch -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 1:19 p.m.
  • Five Important Factors to Consider in Evaluating Racing Cubes
    ah_clem -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 4:37 p.m.
  • Five Important Factors to Consider in Evaluating Racing Cubes
    alex21 -- Tuesday, 14 December 2010, at 9:10 a.m.
    • Five Important Factors to Consider in Evaluating Racing Cubes
      Stick -- Tuesday, 14 December 2010, at 9:25 a.m.
      • ok:-) *NM*
        alex21 -- Tuesday, 14 December 2010, at 10:02 a.m.