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Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors

Posted By: sandokan
Date: Saturday, 18 December 2010, at 6:01 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (Maik Stiebler)

MWC is between 0% and 100% and is variable in the match. Winning percentage is 50% initially. One error of 10% in the match means 10% of winning matches less, not of total matches.

If you make exactly one 10% MWC error in each match against a perfect opponent you win 50 * (100-10)/100 = 45% of the total matches, not 40%.

If you make exactly one 60% MWC error in each match against a perfect opponent you win 50 * (100-60)/100 = 20% of the total matches, not -10%.

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