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Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 18 December 2010, at 6:39 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (sandokan)

That's not the usual definition of MWC error. Suppose my MWC after making the correct move is 50%, and suppose my MWC after playing a whopper is 40%. The size of my error, according to standard definitions, is 10% MWC.

You could, I suppose, say that your error causes you to lose 20% of the matches that you should have won, and attach the figure "20%" to your error. (In concrete terms, if you play the above blunder in 1000 games then you win 400 games when you should have won 500 so you threw away 100 games, or 20% of 500.) However, this is a nonstandard definition and quite counterintuitive to most people.

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