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BGonline.org Forums
Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (sandokan)
Date: Saturday, 18 December 2010, at 6:39 p.m.
That's not the usual definition of MWC error. Suppose my MWC after making the correct move is 50%, and suppose my MWC after playing a whopper is 40%. The size of my error, according to standard definitions, is 10% MWC.
You could, I suppose, say that your error causes you to lose 20% of the matches that you should have won, and attach the figure "20%" to your error. (In concrete terms, if you play the above blunder in 1000 games then you win 400 games when you should have won 500 so you threw away 100 games, or 20% of 500.) However, this is a nonstandard definition and quite counterintuitive to most people.
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