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Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 18 December 2010, at 9:09 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (sandokan)

If Player 1 makes an error of 10% he is due to win 50 * (100-10)/100 = 45%. After that if he makes again an error of 10% he is due to win 45 * (100-10)/100 = 40.5% and so on.

No, if you have 50% MWC and give up 10% MWC, you now have 40% MWC. You now rate to 40% of the time, not 45%. If subsequently you still have 40% MWC and err by 10% MWC, you now have 30% MWC, and rate to win 30% of the time, and so on.

Using your formula, if you made an error that gave up 99% of your match winning chance, you'd be due to win 50 * (100-99)/100 = 50% of the time. Something is wrong there, eh?

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