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Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 18 December 2010, at 9:29 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (sandokan)

If you make exactly one 10% MWC error in each match against a perfect opponent you win 50 * (100-10)/100 = 45% of the total matches, not 40%.

Below, you are White. Blue is doubling. You are about to err by taking instead of passing. This is the only error you will make in this match. How much MWC will this error cost you? How often will you win this match?

The score is: White 4, Blue 2 (match to 5 points, post-Crawford play)

White70


'1X2X3X4X5X ' ' ' ' ' '

'1O2O3O4O5O ' ' ' ' ' '

Blue70

Position ID: 2r0PAADavQ8AAA Match ID: UQmgAEAAEAAA

• Blue doubles

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