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Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors

Posted By: sandokan
Date: Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 4:30 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (sandokan)

In money games it is equity used instead of MWC. If you make 6 errors of 0.100 against the bot you will lose 6 * 0.100 = 0.600. The operation used is addition. In money games it is right to calculate total error as it shows how much you lose.

In matches total MWC error is meaningless. If you make 6 errors of 10% MWC your winning percentage is 50 * ((100-10)/100)^6 = 26.57 MWC. The operation used is multiplying. All players wrongly believe that you lose 60% MWC. That means that you win -10% MWC.

For years some players noticed that they win against the bot much more that they should as reported by the bot. Their observations were ridiculized on various bg forums.

Let's take as example a long match against the bot. You are now at dmp. Because of some previous errors your winning percentage is now 40%. You make one error of 20% MWC. Your winning percentage becomes 40 * (100-20)/100 = 32%, not 40-20 = 20%.

In conclusion bots play very well but their report of errors in match play is not very good.

I see that there is some confusion between winning percentage and MWC. All people in this thread think about MWC instead of winning percentage.

It would be great if someone skilled could run a simulation to show that one error of 10% MWC in every match results in a winning percentage of 45%.

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