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Rollout (and consequent Cube Decision)

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:35 a.m.

In Response To: Holding Game 54 to Play (Carlo Melzi)

All the 4 candidate plays are quite close.

Interestingly enough, the variance of the resulting positions is negatively correlated to their equity. As a result, black seems to have a double after 20/11, only a marginal double after 24/15, a marginal no double after 13/4, and a clear no double after 13/8 13/9.

Comments, anyone?

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 89 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 130 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-----bB---c-dB-ccA-:0:0:1:45:0:0:3:0:10
to play 45

1.	Rollout1	20/11	eq: -0,567
	Player: Opponent: 35,60% (G:6,82% B:0,20%) 64,40% (G:14,94% B:0,15%) Conf: ± 0,017 (-0,584...-0,550) Duration: 8 minutes 18 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/15	eq: -0,583 (-0,016)
	Player: Opponent: 31,93% (G:3,55% B:0,11%) 68,07% (G:5,70% B:0,07%) Conf: ± 0,009 (-0,592...-0,574) Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: -0,584 (-0,016)
	Player: Opponent: 35,00% (G:5,82% B:0,19%) 65,00% (G:12,57% B:0,27%) Conf: ± 0,013 (-0,597...-0,571) Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: -0,592 (-0,025)
	Player: Opponent: 34,66% (G:4,91% B:0,14%) 65,34% (G:8,99% B:0,16%) Conf: ± 0,010 (-0,602...-0,582) Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Holding Game 54 to Play
  Carlo Melzi -- Thursday, 16 December 2010, at 5:49 p.m.
  • Holding Game 54 to Play
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 16 December 2010, at 7:00 p.m.
    • Holding Game 54 to Play
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 16 December 2010, at 9:43 p.m.
  • Holding Game 54 to Play
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 16 December 2010, at 8:17 p.m.
    • Holding Game 54 to Play
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 16 December 2010, at 8:39 p.m.
  • Holding Game 54 to Play
    RolldUpTrips -- Thursday, 16 December 2010, at 9:39 p.m.
    • Holding Game 54 to Play
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 16 December 2010, at 9:47 p.m.
  • Holding Game 54 to Play
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 17 December 2010, at 3:21 a.m.
  • Holding Game 54 to Play
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 17 December 2010, at 4:28 a.m.
    • Holding Game 54 to Play
      Carlo Melzi -- Friday, 17 December 2010, at 6:47 a.m.
    • Holding Game 54 to Play
      Stick -- Friday, 17 December 2010, at 8:24 a.m.
      • Holding Game 54 to Play
        Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 17 December 2010, at 8:42 a.m.
        • Holding Game 54 to Play
          Stick -- Friday, 17 December 2010, at 9:00 a.m.
          • Holding Game 54 to Play
            Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 17 December 2010, at 9:28 a.m.
    • Holding Game 54 to Play
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 17 December 2010, at 3:03 p.m.
  • Rollout (and consequent Cube Decision)
    Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:35 a.m.
    • Rollout (and consequent Cube Decision)
      Stick -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 10:06 a.m.
    • Rollout (and consequent Cube Decision)
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 3:16 p.m.
      • 10k trials, Jacobyless
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 1:43 a.m.
        • 10k trials, Jacobyless
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 1:57 a.m.