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Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Monday, 20 December 2010, at 12:41 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (sandokan)

That makes sense, but if I finally understand you correctly, you're still wrong, I'm afraid. Suppose we divide the 500 winning matches with perfect play further into those where you always had more than 10% MWC and those where your MWC had dipped below 10% before you won. Assuming continuously changing MWC, it's easy to compute that expected number of matches in the former group is (4/9)*1000 = 444.44.... The latter group then comprises 55.5555... matches which you all lose after blundering. You only win 90% of the 444.444..., which is 400.

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