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Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors

Posted By: sandokan
Date: Monday, 20 December 2010, at 2:48 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (Maik Stiebler)

I don't understand why you divided winning matches in 2 such sets but i will follow your idea. It is true that you win 400 from the first set but you are wrong when you say that all matches from the second set will be lost. Only 5.5 matches will be lost. That means you win 400+50 = 450. MWC can go below 10 % and then increase above 10% and then you make that error and still you can win. But you complicate the problem with that division anyway.

To find the number of additional matches that are lost when you make a 10% error I thought it is 0.1 * 500 won matches = 50, not 0.1 * (500 won matches + 500 lost matches) = 50 + 50 = 100, because you would count 50 matches twice. They are part of those 500 lost matches and you count them again in this way.

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