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Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors

Posted By: sandokan
Date: Wednesday, 22 December 2010, at 9:51 a.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning percentage from MWC errors (sandokan)

I had a match yesterday with total MWC error for my opponent of 88% and for me of 20%. With my method of calculating winning percentage I got that I win 73% against this player, which seems realistic.

The winning percentage is a better measure of skill than error rates. In a match one player could have a better error rate than the other no matter how it is calculated and still the other player to have better winning percentage.

I am not used with forums and I was catched in the middle and ridiculed by other people. I thought they were sincere but then i saw they were hypocrites and stopped answering to them. I said that if you make an error of 10% MWC your winning percentage becomes 45% and if you make an error of 60% it becomes 20%. They said that in the first case it becomes 40% but not being correct they said nothing for the second case. From the heart start all thoughts and such people could write a book of 1000 pages to prove that the winning percentage becomes 40%.

I will try now to prove that it becomes 45%. In an urn there are 100 marbles, 50 of them are white and 50 are black. If you extract 10% * 100 = 10 marbles and paint them black and then put back in the urn how many white marbles will be in the urn now? Between 40 and 50 depending on how many white marbles you extract, but the mean is 45. If you try with 60% the mean is 20.

Now seriously you guys should change something in your schools if you don't understand that the winning percentage becomes 45% when you make an 10% MWC error. It is no wonder that we have this financial crisis now.

I will not comment in this thread anymore and if anyone is interested just send me an e-mail.

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