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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 4:30 a.m.

In Response To: Overdue for Double Fives (Paul Weaver)

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 110
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aBBABBBbA-------abbcbCb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62.89% (G: 44.59% B: 0.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.11% (G: 8.88% B: 0.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.24% (G: 47.43% B: 0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.76% (G: 8.79% B: 0.42%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.258
Double:+1.340
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.563 (-0.437)
Double/Take:+1.028 (+0.028)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.550...+0.576)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+1.007...+1.048)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.6%
Duration: 18 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 94
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aDDAB--bA-------abbcbCb---:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 82.05% (G: 30.01% B: 1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.95% (G: 3.28% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.86% (G: 30.18% B: 1.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.14% (G: 3.09% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.918
Redouble:+1.877
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+1.126
Redouble/Take:+1.762 (+0.635)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (-0.126)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.017 (+1.109...+1.143)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.032 (+1.730...+1.793)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 94
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aCDACA-b--------abbcbCb---:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 80.22% (G: 27.49% B: 1.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.78% (G: 4.35% B: 0.06%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.84% (G: 27.88% B: 1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.16% (G: 4.30% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.847
Redouble:+1.729
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+1.091
Redouble/Take:+1.599 (+0.507)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (-0.091)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.016 (+1.075...+1.107)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.026 (+1.573...+1.624)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 122
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aABBBBB--------A----cBedA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.90% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.10% (G: 10.88% B: 0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.53% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.47% (G: 10.87% B: 0.31%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.446
Redouble:+0.918
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.868
Redouble/Take:+0.844 (-0.024)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.132)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.014 (+0.854...+0.882)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.018 (+0.826...+0.862)
Double Decision confidence: 97.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 59
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 135
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBB-------AA--A-b-eeB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 75.08% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.92% (G: 8.74% B: 0.64%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.35% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.65% (G: 8.17% B: 0.56%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.408
Redouble:+0.919
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.778 (-0.034)
Redouble/Take:+0.812
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.188)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.011 (+0.767...+0.789)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.018 (+0.794...+0.831)
Double Decision confidence: 99.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 59
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 130
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBB------AAA----b-eeB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 76.15% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.85% (G: 7.46% B: 0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.00% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.00% (G: 7.32% B: 0.26%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.445
Redouble:+0.969
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.816 (-0.042)
Redouble/Take:+0.858
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.142)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.011 (+0.805...+0.826)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.018 (+0.840...+0.876)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 59
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 122
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBB------AAAA---b-eeA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.96% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.04% (G: 5.42% B: 0.08%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.04% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.96% (G: 5.18% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.504
Redouble:+1.056
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.924 (-0.049)
Redouble/Take:+0.973
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.027)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.012 (+0.912...+0.936)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.014 (+0.959...+0.987)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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