BGonline.org Forums

Rollout: Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 4 January 2011, at 3:30 p.m.

In Response To: Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action? (Stick)

Looks like Stick forgot to post the rollout for this one. (Maybe I confused him by posting a money rollout). The decision is still TCTC after the rollout below.

I should note that there are some reasons to be unsure about the reliability of the rollout. In the given position, when I asked XG for a world-class analysis, it didn't look past 1-ply before declaring that it was an obvious ND. On the other hand, XGR+ thinks it's a clear double. There are some sequences that cause Falafel to be faced with a similar decision next roll, so if XG is messing up that decision then the rollout itself may be messed up. But in any case, it's clear that doubling is worth thinking about here.

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 107 7 point match pip: 87 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=aBBCAbC---B-A-----Abbbbbb-:0:0:-1:00:1:2:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	49.73% (G: 29.52% B: 1.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	50.27% (G: 6.92% B: 0.10%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	50.01% (G: 29.34% B: 1.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	49.99% (G: 6.93% B: 0.11%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.225
Double:	+0.519
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	-0.019
Double/Take:	-0.032 (-0.013)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+1.019)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.006 (-0.025...-0.013)
Confidence Double:	± 0.010 (-0.042...-0.022)
Double Decision confidence:	98.2%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?
  Stick -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 7:44 a.m.
  • Is is a weapon or a gift?!
    higonefive -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:06 p.m.
    • Is is a weapon or a gift?!
      higonefive -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 2:07 p.m.
  • Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?
    phil simborg -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 2:14 p.m.
    • Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 4:07 p.m.
  • Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 3:50 p.m.
  • Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?
    ah_clem -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:30 p.m.
    • Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?
      Stick -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:42 p.m.
  • Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:37 p.m.
  • Money rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 26 December 2010, at 3:57 p.m.
  • Rollout: Falafel v. Stick - Cube Action?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 4 January 2011, at 3:30 p.m.