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Thoughts of a jellyfish.

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 5 January 2011, at 2:38 a.m.

In Response To: Thoughts of a jellyfish. (dc-ohio)

50% for the winner, 25% for the runnerup, 15% for 3rd and 10% for 4th.

I assume you still play strong hands when you're trying to sneak up on cashing. Anyway, 20% of the chips should make your expectation around 20% of the prize pool, equitywise, if you play "normal".

Let's say if you take the low road you have some geometric distribution like {1,3,9,27} to take the top four prizes. Let X = number of times you never make it to the prize money with this strategy. I.e. Your expectation with this GP is (0.5*1 + 0.25*3 + 0.15*9 + 0.10*27 + 0*X) / (1 + 3 + 9 + 27 + X). Set that equal to 0.2 to find the value of X needed for this strategy to be equal to "normal" strategy. Solving for X gives the unphysical value of -13, meaning that you can't get there from here.

(I don't know how reasonable my (geometrical) probability distribution is. Anyone else is certainly welcome to try his/her own.)

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