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70% cube efficiency

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 5 January 2011, at 3:52 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Decision (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I have no idea how this 70% thing works, but I guess my first question would be is it accurate and if so in what situations is it not so accurate.

Basically this is how it works:

1) Find the takepoint assuming the cube will NEVER be used again. (Some call this the "dead-cube-takepoint". I prefer the "buried-cube-takepoint", as in "bury your money in the back yard..." to distinguish it from positions where the cube is really worthless to the owner.)

2) Find the takepoint assuming the next cubeturn will occur EXACTLY at the opponent's drop/take line (where there is no equity gain/loss by taking or dropping). ("Perfect takepoint" or "100% efficient takepoint".)

3) Go 70% of the way from 1 to 2. Sometimes called the "realistic takepoint".

This method is good at early scores, but at late scores, adjustments need to be made. I've seen >75% and <50%. And it's not uniformly dependent upon who has the lead! Not surprisingly, killing of gammons has a big effect. I don't know if others (John and UBK are candidates) have studied the effect at late scores, but AFAIK it's m/l unexplored territory.

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