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How can you trust a number...

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 14 January 2011, at 3:02 a.m.

In Response To: OT -- TCU vs Auburn Rollout -- We BG Players Love Rollouts (Matt Cohn-Geier)

...without error bars?

Well, maybe they can't (or don't), but I can. I ran their simulation but with Auburn vs. Oregon. I then calculated the standard deviation (after converting point differential to winning %-age).

The conclusion (after 25 trials) is that Oregon wins the National Championship game at 3.75 standard deviations (0.9999 single tail confidence). I assumed binomial --> Gaussian stats.

What do you think of their 2-point prediction now?

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