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Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:00 p.m.

In Response To: Nine 5k results (report) (Nack Ballard)

I wanteed to add a bit to what Nack presented.

One needs to notice that the final CI is +/- 0.005 for each move. So the CI of the difference is sqrt(2) that CI so 0.007.

For 5K the CIs are 3 times larger so the confidence is 0.021.

It is to be notted that the 9 samples are all within the 95% confidence (at 5K). This happens 63% of the time (29.9% of the time one out of 9 will be outside, 6.3% there will be 2, and 0.8% there will be 8 or more)

The person who would have got the [S=D] 5k would have seen the +/- 0.021 and know they were far from stat sig.

Stick first RO [S D29] 5k was around 3 SD and should have shown around 99% confidence.

I know Nack expressed some concerned that CI are undervalued, but i've failed so far to see any concrete evidence of such thing, and this position is surely not such an example.

Xavier

PS: just to be clear, it's not like i am trying to defend XG: Nack comment relates to all programs as we all use the sample hypothesis: Normal distribution and independence of results.

Messages In This Thread

• Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
  Stick -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:37 p.m.
  • Stat sig
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 January 2011, at 2:35 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away - extended
    Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:55 a.m.
    • Nine 5k results (report)
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 3:20 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:15 p.m.
          • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 9:34 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 4:47 a.m.
                • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 9:10 p.m.
        • You mean CI *NM*
          neilkaz -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:41 p.m.
          • You mean CI - I did indeed *NM*
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 5:30 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report)
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:43 p.m.