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OLM Mo 01/17/11

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 9:50 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Mo 01/17/11 (Jason Lee)

Hi,

at first sight bar/21 4/2 seems to increase playability, it doesn't take a checker "a sort of out of play" on the 4 point, as in bar/21 6/4. It makes it easier for the spare backman to sit a while on the ace-point. But when looked a little closer I saw that the bad numbers 42 and 43 are bad in either case. And when played bar/21 6/4 the next move is an "out of trouble move" in 23/36 (5's 6's , 41, D1) and a "one time move" in 9/36 (32,31,21,D2,D3,D4), so the only risk occurs in 1 - (23/36 + 9/36 . 23/36) = about 5/36. The risk of putting a direct blot is much greater (11/36), since we are not far behind in the race the reward of this riskier play wont be great. Furthermore it seems not so good for white to stay on the ace-point since he has to get moving too, if he wants some control over the outfield.

All in all I vote bar/21 6/4

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