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Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 9:34 p.m.

In Response To: Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI (eXtreme Gammon)

Why are swings from one move been shown as 100% to another as 99.9% certain so commonplace with XG? The one below is just the latest that I rolled out today and the cube is not even in play. If the answer is that with too few trials XG cannot accurately calculate the CI, why report one that is bogus at all?

		White is GammonBot_VI score: 0 pip: 158 5 point match Crawford pip: 163 score: 4 Blue is You
XGID=-a---aE-CA--eD---c-d---AaA:0:0:1:62:4:0:1:5:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 13/7	eq: -0.035
	Player: Opponent: 49.12% (G:16.45% B:1.50%) 50.88% (G:16.70% B:0.32%) Conf: ± 0.028 (-0.063...-0.007) Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 9/3	eq: -0.101 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 45.89% (G:17.17% B:1.63%) 54.11% (G:16.18% B:0.48%) Conf: ± 0.019 (-0.120...-0.082) Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
1 80 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31247 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

		White is GammonBot_VI score: 0 pip: 158 5 point match Crawford pip: 163 score: 4 Blue is You
XGID=-a---aE-CA--eD---c-d---AaA:0:0:1:62:4:0:1:5:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 9/3	eq: -0.063
	Player: Opponent: 47.76% (G:18.72% B:1.37%) 52.24% (G:15.32% B:0.57%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.067...-0.059) Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.	Rollout2	Bar/23 13/7	eq: -0.073 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 47.39% (G:18.42% B:1.77%) 52.61% (G:16.70% B:0.70%) Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.078...-0.068) Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
1 4481 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31247 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 4480 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31247 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
  Stick -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:37 p.m.
  • Stat sig
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 January 2011, at 2:35 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away - extended
    Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:55 a.m.
    • Nine 5k results (report)
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 3:20 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:15 p.m.
          • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 9:34 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 4:47 a.m.
                • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 9:10 p.m.
        • You mean CI *NM*
          neilkaz -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:41 p.m.
          • You mean CI - I did indeed *NM*
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 5:30 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report)
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:43 p.m.