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Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 4:47 a.m.

In Response To: Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI (Neil Robins)

Neil,

again: the hypothesis to make the calculations of which move is the best are: normal distribution and independence of results.

The 1st one is means that with a large amount of data the distribution will be tend to a normal one.

and yes, 80 is not a large amount in case anyone doubted it and the assumptions can fail in that case.

Now should I report N/A for these number under a certain (which one, btw?) amount of games, or let the user make an educated call? You apparently means that the user shouldn't be trusted to realize that 80 games is not enough. So yes, maybe I should put NA for low game count, at least I would not have to answer the same question over and over.

When setting a RO with automatic stop after a certain level of confidence, the minimum number of roll is set to 324. Why this number rather than 648 or 1296? Well it looked right to me! Is that right? heck, I don't know.. From experience it will be sufficient for most positions but i'am sure you will find at least one counter-example (and probably post it).

You have been posting several times about CI. I don't know if you either do not understand the maths beyond the calculations or disagree with them. In the second case, please feel free to propose a different model. I'am surely not saying the current one is ideal, but, so far, it's the best i know. If you think you know better, please help the backgammon community and share your insights. There are people here that are much better than i am to understand and evaluate statistical models and i am sure this will be an interesting discussion.

Xavier

Messages In This Thread

• Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
  Stick -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:37 p.m.
  • Stat sig
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 January 2011, at 2:35 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away - extended
    Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:55 a.m.
    • Nine 5k results (report)
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 3:20 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:15 p.m.
          • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 9:34 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 4:47 a.m.
                • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 9:10 p.m.
        • You mean CI *NM*
          neilkaz -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:41 p.m.
          • You mean CI - I did indeed *NM*
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 5:30 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report)
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:43 p.m.