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Containment: Might 7-ply outperform XGR+?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 21 January 2011, at 4:13 p.m.

In Response To: Containment: Might 7-ply outperform XGR+? (Casper van der Tak)

"Outperform" would mean that if you did a 7-ply rollout versus an XGR+ rollout (the latter is not possible currently but is supposed to be available in V2), then the 7-ply rollout would estimate a higher equity for the containing side. I'm assuming that the player with a single active checker has nearly trivial checker play, so that the only question is how much equity the containing side can squeeze out of the position.

GNU's checker play might look reasonable here, but to my eye at least, many plays look reasonable. It's quite plausible to me that over the course of the next 20 moves, GNU will make 3 or 4 errors of size 0.05 or greater. So I'm not sure whether I should be trying to imitate it or not.

As for whether 7-ply analysis might do better, my thought is that the position seems quite tactical to me. One play might give me better chances of slotting and making a critical home-board point 5 plies down the line, but give greater chances for the opponent to slip by unhit 6 plies down the line. Weighing these factors against each other is something that I'd think a 7-ply analysis would do quite well.

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