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Containment: Might 7-ply outperform XGR+?

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Saturday, 22 January 2011, at 11:20 p.m.

In Response To: Containment: Might 7-ply outperform XGR+? (Stick)

First of all, I thought XGR+ was truncated at 6 ply, not 7 ply. But let's assume you are correct and it is a 7 ply truncation.

It makes sense that XGR+ could outperform 5-ply, because it is looking deeper. Strength is a balance between the depth and breadth of the search space. 5-ply has greater breadth while XGR+ has greater depth. But at some point looking at more donkey plays at the same depth does not reveal anything useful, while looking deeper at "reasonable" plays will reveal something useful.

But XGR+ is not looking deeper than 7-ply, and it is not looking at more plays at any depth either. So I see no way that it can come up with a more informed answer.

Really, I think Xavier will need to tell us what 7-ply does and how it is pruning its search space, both in terms of plays and rolls of the dice. Does it actually look at all 36^6 = 2.3E+9 possible future dice roll combinations? Or is it also at some point doing a sampling rather than exhaustive enumeration?

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