Thanks for the responses. I'm surprised and pleased that Stick spent so much time on this one, but as you'll see below I don't always agree with his assessments.
A reminder about the scoring: 2 points for the top play of the rollout, and 0 points otherwise, unless indicated explicitly below.
Position 1
It's easy, especially OTB, to see only two candidates here: 21/16 9/8 and 16/10*. However, the 8pt blot is not in all that much danger (there are several White rolls where White will choose not to hit) and the checker on the 23pt is poorly placed. I think in general, many people underestimate how awkward it is to have the rearmost checker on the 23pt when the opponent still owns the 8pt. Shift the position of that blot and the choice is less clear (see variant below).
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 161 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--BBbBB-ACa-d---Ac-cbA-A--:0:0:1:51:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/22 21/16 | eq: +0.289 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.40% (G:14.99% B:0.41%)
42.60% (G:8.44% B:0.34%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.275...+0.303)
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/10* | eq: +0.196 (-0.093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.13% (G:20.86% B:0.54%)
46.87% (G:10.00% B:0.49%) | Conf: ± 0.019 (+0.177...+0.215)
Duration: 3 hours 56 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 21/16 9/8 | eq: +0.191 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.97% (G:14.42% B:0.36%)
45.03% (G:9.33% B:0.40%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.177...+0.205)
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 21/16 8/7 | eq: +0.169 (-0.120) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.15% (G:14.67% B:0.33%)
45.85% (G:9.23% B:0.37%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.157...+0.181)
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 161 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--BBbBB-ACa-d---Ac-cbAA---:0:0:1:51:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 21/16 9/8 | eq: +0.352 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.95% (G:14.60% B:0.32%)
40.05% (G:7.86% B:0.32%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 16/10* | eq: +0.347 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.25% (G:22.58% B:0.70%)
43.75% (G:9.63% B:0.49%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 21/16 8/7 | eq: +0.330 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.68% (G:15.63% B:0.35%)
41.32% (G:8.45% B:0.36%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 | eq: +0.321 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.08% (G:16.78% B:0.38%)
41.92% (G:8.75% B:0.36%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Position 2
The 'tweener play comes out on top. It can sometimes be right to hit in situations like these, leaving two homeboard blots, but generally not when those blots are so high in the board with lower points made. Closing both points can also sometimes be right but not here when there's not enough margin of safety for escaping the back checkers.
  
 
    
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 124 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 115
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBAACB-B--b---abbcb-bB--:1:1:1:52:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/21 9/4 | eq: +0.246 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.18% (G:25.56% B:0.75%)
52.82% (G:16.62% B:1.50%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.233...+0.259)
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/16* | eq: +0.151 (-0.095) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.39% (G:25.66% B:0.73%)
52.61% (G:21.09% B:2.20%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.141...+0.161)
Duration: 3 hours 08 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 9/4 7/5 | eq: +0.084 (-0.162) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.45% (G:22.66% B:0.48%)
57.55% (G:11.91% B:0.52%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.075...+0.093)
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes |
|
| |
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Position 3
Generally one should "fight prime with prime," especially at DMP, and this is no exception. PoH could be a candidate if Blue's prime were shifted one pip forwards and the roll changed to 54. I think this is one of the easier problems in the set, especially with QF.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 114 | | 1 point match | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aBBBBB--cB-A--bcbb-bB-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/11 13/10 | eq: -0.171 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.47% (G:7.18% B:0.49%)
58.53% (G:35.23% B:16.26%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.179...-0.163)
Duration: 5 hours 34 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/4* 7/4 | eq: -0.216 (-0.046) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.19% (G:7.49% B:0.73%)
60.81% (G:36.35% B:17.16%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.223...-0.209)
Duration: 5 hours 22 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/10 13/9 | eq: -0.218 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.12% (G:5.78% B:0.41%)
60.88% (G:38.17% B:17.93%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.225...-0.211)
Duration: 4 hours 55 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 15/11 7/4* | eq: -0.220 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.98% (G:5.89% B:0.49%)
61.02% (G:39.45% B:17.61%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.227...-0.213)
Duration: 5 hours 50 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 15/8 | eq: -0.238 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.11% (G:6.11% B:0.47%)
61.89% (G:28.86% B:9.18%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.244...-0.232)
Duration: 4 hours 38 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | 13/10 8/4* | eq: -0.300 (-0.129) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.02% (G:4.95% B:0.33%)
64.98% (G:47.07% B:30.43%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.312...-0.288)
Duration: 3 hours 44 minutes |
|
| 7. | Rollout2 | 13/9 7/4* | eq: -0.302 (-0.131) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.92% (G:4.58% B:0.42%)
65.08% (G:45.10% B:27.61%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.314...-0.290)
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes |
|
| 8. | Rollout2 | 13/6 | eq: -0.302 (-0.131) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.92% (G:4.61% B:0.31%)
65.08% (G:39.09% B:18.07%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.311...-0.293)
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Position 4
I threw this one in as a sort of anti-QF play. The QF play is the banana split, but it doesn't quite gain enough (but see the variant below). Even after eschewing (or failing to see!) the banana split, though, you could pick the wrong safe play. But the simple plan of preparing to hit next turn should lead you to the top play.
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 136 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 112
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BaBBBCA----cA--bc-d-b-A-A:1:-1:1:13:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 13 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 7/4 | eq: -0.089 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.31% (G:23.54% B:0.20%)
50.69% (G:9.71% B:0.58%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.098...-0.080)
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 5/2* | eq: -0.153 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.66% (G:27.26% B:0.16%)
52.34% (G:17.87% B:2.09%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.163...-0.143)
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 13/10 | eq: -0.155 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.00% (G:23.58% B:0.21%)
53.00% (G:11.11% B:0.71%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.164...-0.146)
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 3/2* | eq: -0.162 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.69% (G:27.05% B:0.18%)
52.31% (G:17.66% B:2.00%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.172...-0.152)
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | Bar/22 7/6 | eq: -0.213 (-0.125) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.87% (G:20.03% B:0.28%)
54.13% (G:11.05% B:0.65%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.226...-0.200)
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | Bar/24 23/20 | eq: -0.235 (-0.147) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.28% (G:21.72% B:0.25%)
54.72% (G:14.31% B:1.18%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.247...-0.223)
Duration: 58 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout2 | Bar/22 23/22 | eq: -0.330 (-0.241) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.73% (G:17.50% B:0.14%)
57.27% (G:9.99% B:0.39%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.343...-0.317)
Duration: 54 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 135 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 112
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BaBBBCA----cA--bbad-b-A-A:1:-1:1:13:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 13 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 5/2* | eq: +0.016 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.85% (G:35.36% B:0.46%)
49.15% (G:19.63% B:2.75%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/22 3/2* | eq: -0.052 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.20% (G:33.20% B:0.53%)
50.80% (G:19.34% B:2.50%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 7/4 | eq: -0.085 (-0.101) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.55% (G:24.97% B:0.41%)
51.45% (G:11.35% B:0.65%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Position 5
Sorry for the misplaced cube; I didn't notice that until the rollout was complete. (By the way, I wish XG would eliminate the cube from the picture at Crawford and also when it's literally DMP, i.e., 1a1a.) Hitting looks dangerous here but White doesn't have much attacking material up front. It would even be a candidate for money, but the margin is clearer at DMP.
Scoring: Give yourself 1 point for 13/7 6/5*.
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 135 | | 1 point match | pip: 177
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----aE-C--aeC----Bbbbb-B-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 6/5* | eq: -0.272 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.40% (G:6.98% B:0.59%)
63.60% (G:35.55% B:6.33%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.277...-0.267)
Duration: 15 hours 15 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/5* | eq: -0.292 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.39% (G:6.14% B:0.51%)
64.61% (G:35.23% B:11.81%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.297...-0.287)
Duration: 14 hours 12 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: -0.325 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.75% (G:6.74% B:0.41%)
66.25% (G:29.32% B:5.40%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.333...-0.317)
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/23 24/18 | eq: -0.344 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.80% (G:5.77% B:0.48%)
67.20% (G:31.84% B:3.34%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.352...-0.336)
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 24/18 8/7 | eq: -0.358 (-0.086) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.11% (G:5.70% B:0.24%)
67.89% (G:35.98% B:5.17%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.366...-0.350)
Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 8/2 6/5* | eq: -0.364 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.81% (G:5.11% B:0.18%)
68.19% (G:33.39% B:3.93%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller+ | 24/23 13/7 | eq: -0.381 (-0.109) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.93% (G:5.53% B:0.19%)
69.07% (G:32.60% B:2.38%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller+ | 24/17 | eq: -0.405 (-0.133) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.73% (G:4.89% B:0.18%)
70.27% (G:36.64% B:2.03%) | |
|
| 9. | XG Roller+ | 18/11* | eq: -0.421 (-0.149) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.97% (G:4.93% B:0.19%)
71.03% (G:32.75% B:3.89%) | |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Position 6
Certainly 8/2 6/2 is out of the question here, though I know some players who would make that play without hesitation. But if Stick thinks this is a next then I'd like him to explain how to choose the right play here, in light of the variant position below. To me this is one of the most difficult positions of the set, and the choice looks like a nasty technical decision requiring careful calculation. And even then, I'm not sure what calculation to be performing.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 141 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 104
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBBCBC-A---a-----bcbbbB--:0:0:1:64:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/13 | eq: +0.343 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.64% (G:23.08% B:2.66%)
44.36% (G:10.66% B:0.51%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.333...+0.353)
Duration: 3 hours 39 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/17 8/4 | eq: +0.290 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.93% (G:23.23% B:2.77%)
46.07% (G:9.35% B:0.35%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.280...+0.300)
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 23/17 6/2 | eq: +0.110 (-0.233) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.58% (G:21.97% B:2.64%)
49.42% (G:13.41% B:0.66%) | Conf: ± 0.021 (+0.089...+0.131)
Duration: 27 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 8/2 6/2 | eq: -0.505 (-0.848) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.81% (G:11.87% B:1.03%)
63.19% (G:16.43% B:0.67%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.522...-0.488)
Duration: 27 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 141 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 105
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBBBCC-A---a-----bcbbbB--:0:0:1:63:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 23/17 8/5 | eq: +0.410 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.15% (G:23.94% B:3.08%)
43.85% (G:8.16% B:0.31%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 23/14 | eq: +0.319 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.07% (G:23.40% B:3.10%)
44.93% (G:11.28% B:0.61%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 23/17 6/3 | eq: +0.252 (-0.158) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.29% (G:22.66% B:2.90%)
46.71% (G:11.98% B:0.64%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Position 7
Looks like Stick is a stronger player now than when I posted a similar position a while back. (Or maybe he absorbed this position into his mental knowledge base after I posted it.) In any case, this position illustrates that Christian Munk-Christensen's suggestion that at GG you pretty much just floor it has its limits. White's board is too strong for anything but the safe play, even at GG.
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 148 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 152
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---bAcb-bA--:0:0:1:65:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 8/2 | eq: +0.166 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.71% (G:10.60% B:0.68%)
52.29% (G:17.22% B:1.95%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.156...+0.176)
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/3* 8/3 | eq: +0.102 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.29% (G:12.81% B:1.91%)
57.71% (G:25.18% B:4.01%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.091...+0.113)
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/18 13/7 | eq: +0.091 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.72% (G:9.83% B:0.77%)
55.28% (G:20.52% B:2.46%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.080...+0.102)
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 23/18 9/3* | eq: +0.082 (-0.084) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.24% (G:10.85% B:0.85%)
56.76% (G:25.04% B:3.07%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.071...+0.093)
Duration: 3 hours 20 minutes |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 18/13 8/2 | eq: -0.052 (-0.218) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.39% (G:8.03% B:0.32%)
60.61% (G:23.22% B:0.90%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 18/7 | eq: -0.062 (-0.228) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.84% (G:8.06% B:0.30%)
61.16% (G:21.77% B:0.95%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller+ | 18/13 9/3* | eq: -0.085 (-0.252) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.08% (G:8.65% B:0.36%)
62.92% (G:24.90% B:1.56%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller+ | 9/3* 6/1* | eq: -0.104 (-0.270) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.95% (G:8.86% B:0.28%)
64.05% (G:29.17% B:3.18%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Position 8
Possibly this one was too easy, and I should have presented a variant where 13/8 5/2 was the top play, or where Blue still has four checkers on the midpoint (for the latter, see the variant below).
Scoring: Give yourself 1 point if you chose 6/1 4/1, though I don't expect many people to pick that play.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 121 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 91
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---DBDBb----bC---b-dabb---:1:-1:1:53:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/2 | eq: +0.242 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.99% (G:3.33% B:0.04%)
34.01% (G:2.74% B:0.10%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.235...+0.249)
Duration: 52 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 4/1 | eq: +0.202 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.58% (G:3.17% B:0.03%)
35.42% (G:3.31% B:0.13%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.195...+0.209)
Duration: 47 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/8 5/2 | eq: +0.167 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.33% (G:9.78% B:0.23%)
37.67% (G:4.33% B:0.24%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.159...+0.175)
Duration: 58 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/5 | eq: +0.144 (-0.097) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.76% (G:3.91% B:0.11%)
37.24% (G:2.27% B:0.07%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.137...+0.151)
Duration: 50 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
 
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 121 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 101
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---CBDBb----bDa--b-c-abb--:1:-1:1:53:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/2 | eq: +0.277 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.87% (G:2.03% B:0.03%)
32.13% (G:1.84% B:0.04%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.272...+0.282)
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/5 | eq: +0.257 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.88% (G:2.03% B:0.06%)
33.12% (G:1.44% B:0.04%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.253...+0.261)
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/8 5/2 | eq: +0.211 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.37% (G:7.05% B:0.22%)
35.63% (G:3.50% B:0.10%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.205...+0.217)
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Position 9
These last two positions are variants of positions that I saw in a draft of Hickey and Storer's upcoming book, which they let me have a sneak preview of.
Stick is out of touch if he thinks people will find this one easy. Especially at GS, most players will reflexively clean up the outfield blot. The point, of course, is that Blue's rear blot is under the gun and you should be smelling a blot-hitting contest on the horizon. So a strong board is priority number 1 at GS. Hitting is probably right at DMP (though I didn't roll it out) but it loses too many gammons.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 116 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 116
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--ACbCB-B-a--BA---bccbAb--:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/12 3/2 | eq: -0.988 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.59% (G:10.73% B:0.79%)
65.41% (G:33.97% B:2.76%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.996...-0.980)
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 3/1 2/1 | eq: -1.068 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.08% (G:9.80% B:0.40%)
67.92% (G:35.50% B:2.64%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-1.076...-1.060)
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/10* | eq: -1.077 (-0.089) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.63% (G:11.59% B:1.18%)
63.37% (G:40.46% B:9.25%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-1.086...-1.068)
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 5/2 | eq: -1.109 (-0.122) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.79% (G:8.34% B:0.60%)
69.21% (G:36.26% B:2.72%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-1.118...-1.100)
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 14/13 3/1 | eq: -1.121 (-0.133) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.03% (G:10.77% B:0.52%)
70.97% (G:35.09% B:1.83%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-1.130...-1.112)
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 14/13 5/3 | eq: -1.123 (-0.135) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.98% (G:9.53% B:0.74%)
71.02% (G:35.12% B:2.03%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-1.131...-1.115)
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Position 10
Stick gave this a 7 but I think the problem is even tougher than his analysis makes it seem. Strategically, Blue wants to escape that last checker and doesn't want another checker sent back. It's not enough merely to observe that 23/18 exposes the blot to a triple shot; see the variant below. The centered cube is a factor (Blue didn't have a double before the roll, but if somehow White already owned the cube, then hitting would be noticeably less attractive), as is the fact that 8/3* doesn't strip the 8pt. I think that the more one studies this position, the more surprising it becomes that hitting comes out on top by such a large margin here.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-a-BCCD--Bba---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:51:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/22 8/3* | eq: +0.398 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.85% (G:22.47% B:2.60%)
42.15% (G:11.83% B:0.52%) | Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.378...+0.418)
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/18 8/7 | eq: +0.274 (-0.124) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.22% (G:18.76% B:1.54%)
43.78% (G:11.01% B:0.42%) | Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.258...+0.290)
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/22 11/6 | eq: +0.269 (-0.129) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.38% (G:20.74% B:1.91%)
44.62% (G:10.39% B:0.36%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.252...+0.286)
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 23/18 6/5 | eq: +0.240 (-0.158) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.40% (G:18.43% B:1.55%)
44.60% (G:11.05% B:0.40%) | Conf: ± 0.023 (+0.217...+0.263)
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 23/18 7/6 | eq: +0.240 (-0.158) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.04% (G:18.48% B:1.55%)
44.96% (G:10.83% B:0.42%) | Conf: ± 0.023 (+0.217...+0.263)
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | 11/5 | eq: +0.233 (-0.165) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.79% (G:20.50% B:1.64%)
45.21% (G:10.67% B:0.33%) | Conf: ± 0.024 (+0.209...+0.257)
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes |
|
| 7. | Rollout2 | 8/3* 7/6 | eq: +0.230 (-0.168) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.22% (G:21.49% B:2.12%)
45.78% (G:12.89% B:0.52%) | Conf: ± 0.025 (+0.205...+0.255)
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes |
|
| 8. | Rollout2 | 8/3* 6/5 | eq: +0.219 (-0.179) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.55% (G:21.00% B:2.17%)
45.45% (G:13.30% B:0.63%) | Conf: ± 0.027 (+0.192...+0.246)
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes |
|
| 9. | Rollout2 | 8/7 8/3* | eq: +0.218 (-0.180) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.05% (G:21.63% B:2.28%)
45.95% (G:13.25% B:0.58%) | Conf: ± 0.028 (+0.190...+0.246)
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 157 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-a-BCCD--Bb---ab-cbb-A--:0:0:1:51:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 8/7 | eq: +0.424 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.21% (G:19.50% B:1.65%)
39.79% (G:10.05% B:0.34%) | Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.406...+0.442)
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/22 8/3* | eq: +0.343 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.61% (G:21.83% B:2.35%)
42.39% (G:13.22% B:0.54%) | Conf: ± 0.026 (+0.317...+0.369)
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 11/5 | eq: +0.327 (-0.097) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.93% (G:20.75% B:1.82%)
43.07% (G:10.26% B:0.37%) | Conf: ± 0.022 (+0.305...+0.349)
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21