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OLM Tu 02/01/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 3:38 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 02/01/11 (Jason Lee)

33 rolls put a second checker on the bar. 5-5 misses but brings the two back checkers around (or maybe somethings even better). 5-2 makes the 11- and 8-points.

We're 43 pips down in the race. We're outboarded 3::2. One checker is on the bar and we have three vulnerable blots.

My gut feel (and therefore my vote) is that we must pass.

If I were up on my Rockwell-Kazaross MET I would do a calculation in my head to find out takepoint. I did that after deciding my vote. Assuming 2/3 of our (cubeless) losses are gammons and 1/6 of our (cubeless) wins are gammons, I get a takepoint of ~31% cubeless GWC. Suppose we were to turn this into a 21-point holding game about the time opp gets to the safety of his midpoint. Would be win 31% from there? If he hasn't made his 5-point, it might be close. Is the situation I describe the average position we reach? I doubt it.

Pass.

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