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let's make a deal -- OT

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:52 p.m.

In Response To: VERY OT (Some Zeus questions and comments) (neilkaz)

OK, I'll answer some questions for you but then you have to answer some for me. :)

If GB trails by 5 with 1 second on the clock, we say GB scores a TD 40.8% of the time from 5 yards out. This is with customized teams (i.e. prediction based on recent performances of GB's offense and PIT's defense). For two generic teams it's 37.6%.

A major offseason project of ours is to tune up our model to match NFL stats/results such as this one. So your questions are reminders for us to look at these goal-to-go situations. I have data from a few years ago compiled by these people:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/

which tallied 52 3rd/4th and goal TD passing attempts from the 1- and 2-yardline. (Their study was arguing how much better running is than passing for these distances). The combined TD % was 36.5% for pass attempts, but for whatever reason (statistical or systematic) it was actually higher from the 2-yardline (37.8% vs. 33.3%). Note the data for runs from this distance is more plentiful since most teams prefer the run under these conditions. (In their study that had 564 total instances of runs with 3rd/4th and goal from 1-, 2-, and 3-yards out.)

So, how does our 37.6% compare to their 36.5% given that we are going from the 5- and they are going from the 1- or 2-yardline? On the one hand, there is more room to throw the ball (15 yards vs. 11 or 12 yards) but in the other direction, the defense is probably biasing their action towards the pass from 5 yards out as compared to 1- and 2-yards out where they are biasing towards a running play. The bottom line, is that I don't know, and we'll be scouring knowledge space in the offseason for better data to help answer this.

OK, now my question to you and everyone out there who cares about these OT's:

With 1 timeout remaining and 2:00 on the clock (assume 2-minute warning has stopped the clock), which of the two situations would you rather have:

A) trailing by 6 with the ball on your own 30 yardline, or

B) trailing by 3 with the ball on your own 10 yardline?

(Yes, these two situations aren't quite what could/did happen in the game, but they are fairly close and when I tell you my answer you will understand why I chose them.)

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