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Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:44 a.m.

In Response To: Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT (neilkaz)

...The team that is trailing with 2 minutes left and much of the field to traverse isn't going to be wimpy from their own 5 or 10 yard line.

Agree, but you can't ignore the fact that the defense (and its intentions) change as well. Krasker's model (if you read the fine print) does some kind of "Nash Equilibrium" technique to assure that both offense and defense act optimally to reach their goals. Our model simply mimics what NFL coaches do (i.e. what decisions they make) in these circumstances. It's surprising (to me) that these two are in such close agreement. That may (and likely does) have a random coincidence component. (Note we don't always agree so closely with the values in Krasker's table as we do in these two instances.)

Messages In This Thread

• OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
  Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 4:09 p.m.
  • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 6:42 p.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 6:51 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 7:18 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 8:14 p.m.
  • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
    Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:13 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 3:33 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:57 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 3:52 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Adam Versaw -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:34 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 5:07 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 1:03 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:10 p.m.
        • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
          Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:37 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:50 p.m.
      • OT - punt
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 10:35 p.m.
    • The other field goal
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        neilkaz -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:15 p.m.
        • The other field goal
          Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 5:38 p.m.
          • The last field goal - Chuck??
            Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:40 p.m.
            • The last field goal - Chuck??
              Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:39 p.m.
        • The other field goal
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 10:03 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:48 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:07 p.m.
      • NOT close
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 7:44 p.m.
        • NOT close
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:13 p.m.
          • NOT close
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:03 p.m.
            • NOT close
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 10:22 p.m.
        • VERY OT (Some Zeus questions and comments)
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.
          • let's make a deal -- OT
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:52 p.m.
            • let's make a deal -- OT
              Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 4:30 a.m.
            • Break even point
              Adam Versaw -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 3:35 p.m.
            • anyone else care to weigh in?
              Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 5:44 p.m.
              • I will in much detail later..am at work.. too hard to compose detailed thoughts
                neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 6:26 p.m.
                • OK, I'll wait
                  Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 6:37 p.m.
            • let's make a deal -- OT
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 8:48 p.m.
            • Your data..OT
              neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
            • Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT
              neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 11:48 p.m.
              • Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT
                Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
            • cross-check of (nearly) independent models
              Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:35 a.m.
        • NOT close
          Sam Pottle -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 5:09 a.m.
          • record
            Chuck Bower -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 4:48 p.m.
    • Call was close (and be careful of results playing)
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 7:00 p.m.