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Tough Play In Late Game; Forced To Leave A Shot

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 5:28 p.m.

In Response To: Tough Play In Late Game; Forced To Leave A Shot (Paul Weaver)

Appears to me that whatever Blondie plays, she's leaving Dagwood with 25-30 good numbers. 30 for the pure play of 3(2), but about half of those hit loose on the acepoint, giving back five (hit loose + hit back). Still, those return hits are part of the other plays' arsenal. Meanwhile the third blot on the 8-point leads to more match-ending gammons. (Gammon value: status quo is 18.6% MWC. Risk that to reach 60%, i.e. gain 41.4% ==> g.v. = 18.6/41.4 ~0.42.)

I'd wimp 18/13. Now 6/5 saves a few hits (three?), but it is worth the loss of flexibility? Another issue is that by staying on the 13-point, Blondie gives opp problems with rolls of 5-1 and 6-1. If staying on the 13-point, 6/5 leaves better 2's than 5/4.

18/13, 6/5.

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