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BGonline.org Forums
AtS BoE calculation sez...
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Routine boring race cube..does AtS matter much here? (Chuck Bower)
Date: Friday, 25 March 2011, at 9:38 p.m.
...takepoint is 21.5% (so 'cashpoint' is 78.5%).
Here is a sketch of how to get this number, for those who care. Using R-K MET:
1) highest cube is 4 --> 8. Takepoint there is 10.56%. (I.e. taking is for the match; passing leaves Brown 11-away, 3-away.)
2) For 2 --> 4 calculate the buried cube takepoint. That is, do the risk reward just using the three relevant scores (7-away, 9-away; 4-away all; 3-away, 11-away). For that I got 27.54%.
3) For 1 --> 2 also calculate the buried cube takepoint as in #2 above. I got 25.40%.
4) Now work backward; i.e. go back to the 2 --> 4 cube and assume that the player who owns the 4-cube (Beige), instead of burying it in the backyard, will be able to use it with perfect efficiency. "Perfect efficiency" means he will offer the 8-cube to opp at exactly opp's drop/take point (10.56% here). That changes Beige's 4-cube takepoint from the buried cube value (27.54%) to (100% - 10.56%)*(27.54%) = 24.63%. Of course assuming Beige will be able to use the cube with perfect efficiency is unrealistic. I chose 60% cube ownership equity (typical for races that have reached the bearoff) which means interpolate 60% of the way from worthless cube (27.54%) to perfectly efficient cube (24.63%), which is 25.88%.
5) Finally, do a similar calculation as in #4 for the 1 --> 2 cube. [Intermediate result -- perfect cube efficiency corresponds to (100% - 25.88%)*25.4%. Then interpolate 60% from 'buried' to 'perfect'.] If none of us made an arithmetic error you should get 21.5%.
Now do you see why I was too lazy to try this in my head?
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