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Daily Quiz 4/1/11
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/1/11 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 1 April 2011, at 3:02 p.m.
1) D/T I play short matches almost exclusively, and an effective strategy is to get some gammon chances and push the cube. I'd certainly double here at an early match score, and I'll do the same for money. It's early enough that black can take.
2) OTB, I'd just make the deuce point without thinking about it. But White is way ahead in the race with a four-corner holding game. Perhaps 18/8 is correct since it breaks one of the holds, and with the blot on the 20 white has good counterplay if hit. I'm not sure enough about this, so I'll grab the homeboard point. 8/2 6/2
3) Black wins immediately if he rolls doubles other than aces. Add 5/36 to the equity sum ~ .14
Black loses if he shakes a 21 23 or 31 or if white shakes doublets other than double aces. That's roughly 6/36 + 5/36 = 11/36 or roughly 30% losses or 70% wins. But this only happens when black fails to throw doubles. Add 31/36 x 25/36 to the equity sum ~ .6
I get .74. Clearly enough to double. I think White has to swallow hard and take this one. No, I couldn't do this over the board - the double is clear, but the take decision is not.
D/T
4) By my count, Black has 18 rolls that force him to leave a direct shot (pick and pass plays aren't counted in this sum. If we assume white wins whenever he hits a shot, that's roughly 1/2 x 1/3 or about 17%. There are other ways to win, but not enough to raise this into takable territory. Plus there's a bit of a gammon threat. D/P
5) With that board, I'd minimize shots by playing 16/11. QF makes me think 6/4*/1 might be right, but OTB I'd play it safe.
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