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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/1/11
Posted By: Stein Kulseth In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/1/11 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 1 April 2011, at 3:15 p.m.
- 1: Double/drop
- Even if White only has 2 points, and Black has the bar point, I let this go. The 2nd man on bar makes a big difference, and also I note how well White's rolls play next turn.
- 2: 18/8
- I think it is right to address White's main problem - getting the back men home - now, before Black can build his board and while 1s are duplicated and hit from the stripped point.
- 3: Double/take
- Yes! One I can calculate and get right! That also means that I won't learn anything from this, but I can really use a confidence builder here ...
White loses immediately after the 3 high doubles, wins with the cube immediately after the 6 low rolls (21, 31, 32), and may win by rolling one of the 5 working doubles after any of the remaining 27 rolls. 3/4 of 5 is 3.75 meaning White should notch up 9.75 over 36 games.- 4: Double/drop
- I count 12 rolls that leave direct shots, and 12 more that leaves an indirect (mostly 7-shots on 11). That's around 6 hits, out of which White should win almost all. There won't be many later hits, say 1, and White must count on winning more than 2/29 in the race, that is more than 7%. Kleinman for 72 -103 gives a coeff of ~7 corresponding to just a couple of %. Here Black is much less efficient, and may have to waste more to stay safe. Otoh, he also may gain by hitting in some variations. Assuming the contact evens out for race purposes and just Assuming 6 epc difference in wastage, the KC would give a coeff of almost 5 which would be 5% and still not enough.
- 5: 16/11
- I weenie out here, with the race still in contention, gammons on the line, and not strong enough to claim or give a strong cube after hit-dance
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