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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/1/11
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/1/11 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 1 April 2011, at 6:14 p.m.
Problem 1. Let's compare this to the ref. pos. 52S-55B-f (did I butcher that?) which is a 1.18 pass, 0.90 ND. Beige is better in two ways with ten in the zone and a better point, but worse in one way because the acepoint isn't covered. Brown is better with the barpoint made and more advanced in the race. Overall I think Beige has gained, but I doubt that he's gained 0.10 (i.e. to become TG). D+P.
Problem 2. Making a break for it is tempting, but would be better if Beige didn't leave a checker on the 18-point (and the eleven hit+cover rolls I see). I'll go quietly with the less-than-efficient 2-point. 2(2).
Problem 3. Using Robertie's method: 14% by rolling doublets and {31,21,32} = 17% cashes. (Since Brown needs 44 or higher to win on this roll the 14% is a bit low of an estimate. But there's also some double counting to offset that. Still, not a close decision that I can see.) R+T.
Problem 4. I count 12 direct shots and 6 half-directs (i.e. 7's, 8's, or 9's) so call that 15 direct shots. Those only lead to 5 return hits -- 5/36 wins. I don't think you can find another 3/36 wins, and net gammons probably means you need even more than that. R+P.
Problem 5. Let's compare two plays: weenie = 16/13, 3/1 vs. gutsy = 16/13, 6/4*. Assume weenie leads to a straight race. Then opp is on roll leading 92::98, which Kleinman's to about 70% wins for Brown or a net cubeless equity of -0.4 for Beige. Assume after the hit that an immediate return hit (p = 13/36) is a gammon loss, a fan (9/36) is a simple win, and everything else leaves the game 50::50. The cubeless equity for this play is then (9 - 2*13)/36 = -17/36 which is a cubeless equity of about -0.47 from Beige's PoV. If these gross approximations are close (sounds like an oxymoron...), or if the deficiencies of the two come close to cancelling then 'weenie' is better. Sometimes it takes more guts to make the gutless play. :) 16/13, 3/1.
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