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not an April Fool position -- Rollout

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 3 April 2011, at 3:31 a.m.

In Response To: not an April Fool position (Chuck Bower)

A good stat to remember is that if each player needs a specific die, the player on roll is a 59::41 favorite to get it first. Of course that assumes both players hold their positions forever, but it's still a pretty good reference value.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 72
Money session
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBBCCB-----B-----bccabcA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 59.07% (G: 13.16% B: 0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.93% (G: 10.08% B: 0.03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.81% (G: 12.61% B: 0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.19% (G: 10.17% B: 0.03%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.217
Redouble:+0.450
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.384
Redouble/Take:+0.346 (-0.039)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.616)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3246638
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.380...+0.388)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.007 (+0.339...+0.353)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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