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Daily Quiz 4/3/11

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Sunday, 3 April 2011, at 12:32 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/3/11 (Stick)

1: No double/take
Black has a good 3pt game with even race and a strong forward position. White has yet to make any inner board points - but has a quite flexible position, and is blocking 6s. Looks like a clear money no-double. At the score Black's TP is considerably higher - raw TP is ~28% and recube is quite weak, so even with recube it is ~25%. So maybe technically White can double here, but the take is seriously easy. I would want to get one more improvement, and then if I reach an AtS drop I might still get an erroneous take.
2: Double/take
Viewed as a plain race - ignoring contact - the Keith count rates this as RD/T. The above-mentioned higher TP for Black should make it a border-line drop on the race alone. The contact highly favors black though, with [456][12] all giving a shot whereas the small nondoubles make White waste (or give 4 indirects + 66 killer). The hitting variations for White aren't that powerful as they leave indirects and even when they work they only win a mostly won game. So Black must have a big take, but White should still have a double. Also, in contrast with #1, any possible drop errors from Black will be in this position, not the next.
3: Double/unhappy take
I am seriously in doubt about the take here, so W-doubling is on. The MET works against White, having a raw TP of a big 29%, and a Gammon price 26/31. The combination of having the anchor, having the strong board which makes loose hits costly, and Black having one back semiprimed, would make me take for money, but AtS, I am seriously in doubt. The recube is strong though, so I venture a take.
4: Double/take
Score considerations as above. No gammons here, but still higher TP for Black should make this a double, but still a take I think. The 5 pont isn't made, and with no other board points made either it is no disaster if Black's blot is hit - it may enter low to be a nuisance.
5: Double/drop
The killer score 4A2A. Almost anything that may give a gammon is a double here, and this should be no exception. If the blot is hit there is serious gammon danger. Whereas if not hit, and covered, White's 5-prime may last , or turn into a 4-prime that still primes the ace-point. Rolling a prime with 13 men isn't that easy and White should be able to slime out and home a good deal. Enough to take? I fear not, there is also the issue of Black hitting blots left when White can't escape and breaks - I am inclined to let it go as White.

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