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Algorithm for 'fair' bet

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 5 April 2011, at 7:32 p.m.

In Response To: golf bet - OT (christian munk-christensen)

Get the betting line. There is probably a better one than below (there used to be 'markets' where you could bet both sides, but the one I knew about went belly-up). But here is a default site if you can't find a better one:

http://sports.bodog.com/sports-betting/golf-pga.jsp

Make a spreadsheet with these numbers. Convert odds to probabilities and add all of them. Renormalize all (proportionally) so that the new sum is 1. Then add up the probabilities for the side you mention (Michelson + Woods + Europeans) and convert to odds.

(To be more exact you need to estimate how "field" converts to "European field" and "Non-European field".)

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