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Man or chicken?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 9 April 2011, at 2:59 a.m.

In Response To: Man or chicken? (Marcos Nahhas)

Gammon price at this score+cube-location is about 2/3 (compared to 1/2 for unlimited/money play). If the hit fails, it will usually(?) be catastrophic.

One thing arguing for the hit is Blue's fading timing. But giving up one anchor AFTER shoring up the homeboard still leads to some wins.

Which anchor will Blue surrender? Again, temptation is casting doubt on giving up the 20-point while it shadows White's 11-point, but A) that point may not be so difficult to clear, and B) the 22-point covers a lot of ground, potentially when White is more vulnerable (i.e. has less defenses).

Finally, it's not obvious which way to play the 6-4 after deciding not to hit. Thematically, covering the better point now makes sense, but look at the upcoming rolls that don't contain an escaping (from the 20-point) number after 8/4, 9/3 -- i.e. smallish rolls containing {1,2,3}, particularly 3-2, and 2-2. I've talked myself into the not-so-rote play of:

8/2, 9/5.

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