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FWIW XG1 RO 18/14 2/1 vrs 3/2

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 9 April 2011, at 3:12 a.m.

In Response To: FWIW XG1 RO 18/14 2/1 vrs 3/2 (Mark Denihan)

Don't know the answer, but keep in mind that there is considerable uncertainty on the 0.03 equity difference between the two plays. (They are separated by 2.8 standard deviations, so it's not likely 3/2 is better than 2/1 (although remotely possible) but still, the 95% confidence interval on the difference between the two is approximately (0.01, 0.05). (And, yes, it could just as likely be larger than 0.03. :)

I haven't included the information from the first rollout since (as Neil figured out) XG1 is mishandling the cube in that one. It's shaky to put weight on a flawed rollout.

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