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Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 12 April 2011, at 6:56 p.m.

In Response To: Match to 5, 3-4 backgame, juicy shot, cube action? (ah_clem)

Assuming 25% of White's losses are gammons, I get a takepoint around 36%.

Positionally White looks pretty bad, with only two homeboard points. The immediate hits plus repeaters for next turn tally 2/3. If you make the oversimplified assumption that White loses all of these hits and wins on all the misses, then he's still short of the above calculated takepoint.

I didn't include White's gammon wins in the calculation. Those are particularly tasty here (win match exactly). So the takepoint is lower than 36%. How much, though? (I doubt White wins that many gammons -- he needs to put a Blue checker on the bar and keep it there for quite a while. Blue shouldn't have trouble running off a G if he doesn't spend time on the bar.)

I know I've passed this kind of position when it was a solid take, but in those cases White had a better board, and Blue had a worse one. I'm not sure what's right but I'd pass this OtB.

D+P.

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