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Bot Info + Variants

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 13 April 2011, at 6:17 p.m.

In Response To: Onesided Holdinggame, Cubeaction? (higonefive)

I would normally wait to post this but since it has so many XG windows open I'm going to toss it out there now so I can close them. Below are the original problem and then some variants. I'm not going to write up the analysis but it should be obvious. I've kept the race the same without altering the defender's structure at all in all positions but the last. The race is very important so I didn't want to touch it in any manner. To be a more thorough comparison I would extend these rollouts and crush most of the variance but I don't have the time or want.
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 119
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-BC-B-B-bB--bcceB-----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.11% (G: 1.57% B: 0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.89% (G: 0.54% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.43% (G: 1.18% B: 0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.57% (G: 0.47% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.542
Double:+1.112
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.889 (-0.085)
Double/Take:+0.974
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.026)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.880...+0.899)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.963...+0.986)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 31 minutes 59 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 119
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-BC-B-B-cB---cddBa----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 76.18% (G: 1.43% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.82% (G: 0.58% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.28% (G: 1.13% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.72% (G: 0.57% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.524
Double:+1.062
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.875 (-0.043)
Double/Take:+0.917
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.083)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.864...+0.885)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.905...+0.929)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 24 minutes 47 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 119
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-BC-B-B-dB---d-dBba---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 73.13% (G: 1.72% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.87% (G: 1.05% B: 0.03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.49% (G: 1.46% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.51% (G: 0.92% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.463
Double:+0.950
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.777 (-0.032)
Double/Take:+0.809
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.191)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.765...+0.790)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.796...+0.821)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 07 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 119
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-BC-B-B-dB----edBb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 74.59% (G: 1.46% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.41% (G: 0.83% B: 0.03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.76% (G: 1.36% B: 0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.24% (G: 0.78% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.492
Double:+1.002
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.822 (-0.043)
Double/Take:+0.866
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.134)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.808...+0.837)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.850...+0.881)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 20 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-BC-B-B-bB---cceBb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 81.15% (G: 3.39% B: 0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.85% (G: 0.86% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.39% (G: 2.11% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.61% (G: 0.94% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.623
Double:+1.279
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.983 (-0.017)
Double/Take:+1.182 (+0.182)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.976...+0.990)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.162...+1.201)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 23 seconds

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