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Interesting bearoff 54?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 15 April 2011, at 1:35 a.m.

In Response To: Interesting bearoff 54? (TarHeelFan)

Spare on the acepoint helps if opp stays on the bar and you roll {41,51,61} followed by a hit. Actually if opp enters immediately it's not going to matter. So don't worry about the 4/9 factor and just think about (1/6)*(11/36) ~5%.

Taking one off vs. two is going to lead to a total of 6 or 7 off vs. 7 or 8 off. This is close enough to the max of the first derivative (i.e. when an extra checker off is worth the most it can be worth) and that is in the 9% ballpark.

You can multiply both by 4/9 if you want, but that won't change the play. 5/0, 4/0.

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