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BGonline.org Forums
Interesting bearoff 54?
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Interesting bearoff 54? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Friday, 15 April 2011, at 7:10 p.m.
I had the score reversed (in my head) so wasn't even concerned with gammon wins. How much does that affect things?
Certainly getting hit kills Blue's gammon chances, but getting an extra checker off (when not getting hit) increases them too. BTW, I'm probably going to misrepresent something someone said, but I do recall someone here, possibly Stick, mentioning the over-importance placed with odd vs. even during the bearoff -- specifically, thinking that an extra checker off (leaving an odd count) carries little/no value compared to the even count. One reason is that sometimes you get only one checker off on a future roll where the odd count now gains.
Even here, if your next roll is 3-1 (while opp remains on the bar) you're left with 2n or 2n+1 checkers depending upon how you played this roll. And there are future roll sequences (even when opp enters) that can burn you.
So, do the gammon wins favor saving a checker? Maybe. Do the total wins favor ripping? Yes. Which is stronger? My feeling is that ripping has the advantage. QF (and other posters :) may be saying otherwise.
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