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Sconyers database sez...

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 17 April 2011, at 7:08 p.m.

In Response To: Sconyers database sez... (Timothy Chow)

Yep, that's it. Having an extra checker off only helps if you get hit (at DMP). So multiplying by 11/36 now gives the non-rip play a 1.4% edge. The rollouts say it's not near this much. Apparently the later hits (recall those happen about 1.56% of games, regardless of which play is made) bring the two options closer together. There must other secondary effects to get this down to ~0.5% difference.

(I'm done. :)

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting bearoff 54?
  TarHeelFan -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 2:51 p.m.
  • Interesting bearoff 54?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 5:14 p.m.
  • Interesting bearoff 54?
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 5:32 p.m.
    • Interesting bearoff 54?
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 April 2011, at 11:29 p.m.
      • Interesting bearoff 54?
        neilkaz -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 1:55 a.m.
  • Interesting bearoff 54?
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 1:35 a.m.
    • Interesting bearoff 54?
      Turz -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 8:34 a.m.
      • Interesting bearoff 54?
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 5:19 p.m.
    • Interesting bearoff 54?
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 5:23 p.m.
      • Interesting bearoff 54?
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 7:10 p.m.
        • Interesting bearoff 54?
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 15 April 2011, at 8:03 p.m.
  • DMP rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 16 April 2011, at 7:24 p.m.
    • Sconyers database sez...
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 16 April 2011, at 9:22 p.m.
      • Sconyers database sez...
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 April 2011, at 5:23 p.m.
        • Sconyers database sez...
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 17 April 2011, at 7:08 p.m.