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BGonline.org Forums
BQ: Hit or not hit (5 of the series)?
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: BQ: Hit or not hit (5 of the series)? (leobueno)
Date: Thursday, 21 April 2011, at 3:12 p.m.
If White really owns the cube here then I think Blue is playing to avoid gammon. Make the anchor and don't hit anywhere. 15/14 is probably better than 8/7 because it gets that checker closer to home while leaving the same number of shots. (The smoothing 8/7 has the plus of allowing 2-2 to play quite nicely if White misses and doesn't jump the 3-prime, but that seems like too rare of a parlay. Not sure, though.)
If Blue owns this cube then it may be a different story. Now trying to win comes into the picture, although gammon avoidance is still a big component. 25/24, 15/13* looks like the best play at DMP, but that may be too dangerous here. Any {1,3,4} roll that doesn't also contain a 6 hits loose on White's 2-point. 5-x (again, no 6) has a choice of hitting loose on the 1-point or 2-point. 2-2 is good for White, also. Thus it looks like only 6-x (11 rolls) fail to hit in White's board. That's a lot of gammon vig.
25/23 at least makes the anchor (no guarantee of saving the gammon, but eventually some breathing room). After Blue's 6/5*, White's 5-x and 2-y (except 2-6) hit, along with 4-1 and 1-1 for a total of 21 return hits. But that's 15 misses so I think 6/5* may be worth the gamble.
Summary: with White owning the cube, don't hit. With Blue owning the cube, hit on the 5-point. At DMP, hit in the outfield (13-point).
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