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Variant Rollout

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 3:40 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Marcos Nahhas)

Move Brown's spare on the 2-point back one spot and it's now a 1.05 pass -- a change of 0.14 in equity for this seemingly small (to me) adjustment.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 110
7 point match
pip: 170
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---CCbBB-----B--abbbcbBA:0:0:-1:00:0:3:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.68% (G: 38.30% B: 7.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.32% (G: 4.25% B: 0.24%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.45% (G: 39.03% B: 20.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.55% (G: 4.68% B: 0.44%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.897
Double:+1.742
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.874 (-0.126)
Double/Take:+1.048 (+0.048)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3246638
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.868...+0.880)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.037...+1.060)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 43 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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