       
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 12 | | 11 point match | pip: 99
score: 6
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBBBA-AA------------bBf-:1:1:1:21:6:6:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/6 | eq: -2.090 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.33% (G:86.63% B:3.90%) | Conf: ± 0.001 (-2.091...-2.089)
Duration: 5.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/20 | eq: -2.096 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.66% (G:88.59% B:1.34%) | Conf: ± 0.001 (-2.097...-2.095)
Duration: 11.0 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 23/21 8/7 | eq: -2.118 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.97% (G:89.16% B:1.89%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 23/21 9/8 | eq: -2.121 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.94% (G:89.38% B:1.87%) | |
|
| 5. | 3 ply | 23/21 3/2 | eq: -2.138 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 2.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.54% (G:89.33% B:2.35%) | |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
I say that the exact position may matter and your analysis that not running the back checker accomplishes nothing is faulty.
Simple rules such as don't take a chance to get backgammoned for the match do not work. One must look at how sizable the swings may be and the chances of those swings occurring.
Do you have a reason to think the rollout above is faulty?