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31P-41S-54 XG-Rollout

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 12 May 2011, at 1:47 a.m.

In Response To: 31P-41S-54? (Chuck Bower)

In pretty good agreement with Stick's GNU-bg rollout, particularly on how clear the top play is.

I think it can be misleading to come up with an explanation after-the-fact but if you'll take my warning, I'll give it a try -- at least this is what I told myself after seeing the RO: If you were to follow the axiom "put your checkers where they belong", where would you put them here? Now, what are the reasons for not putting them there? Blue has the stronger homeboard so a loose hit is not much of a concern. White does have 9 PoH rolls, but the best Blue can do in those cases is to avoid getting sent to the bar. Staying on the 24-point is still pretty bad after those. Meanwhile, how about the other 27 rolls?

		White is Professional score: 32 pip: 162 Money session pip: 163 score: 13 Blue is c_ray
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:54:13:32:0:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	24/20 13/8	eq: +0.280
	Player: Opponent: 56.42% (G:16.77% B:0.84%) 43.58% (G:11.35% B:0.46%) Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.266...+0.294) Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.245 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 55.17% (G:18.38% B:0.89%) 44.83% (G:12.43% B:0.68%) Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.232...+0.258) Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.	Rollout1	13/8 6/2*	eq: +0.233 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 54.91% (G:18.07% B:0.89%) 45.09% (G:12.60% B:0.65%) Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.219...+0.247) Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/20 6/1*	eq: +0.227 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 55.04% (G:17.18% B:0.73%) 44.96% (G:12.19% B:0.62%) Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.211...+0.243) Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
5.	Rollout2	24/15	eq: +0.223 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 55.72% (G:14.93% B:0.78%) 44.28% (G:12.06% B:0.50%) Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.209...+0.237) Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3246638 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3246638 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• 31P-41S-54?
  Chuck Bower -- Monday, 9 May 2011, at 11:26 p.m.
  • 31P-41S-54?
    Stick -- Monday, 9 May 2011, at 11:49 p.m.
  • 31P-41S-54?
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 9 May 2011, at 11:53 p.m.
  • 31P-41S-54?
    Ian Shaw -- Tuesday, 10 May 2011, at 4:44 p.m.
  • 31P-41S-54?
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 11 May 2011, at 3:14 a.m.
  • Anyone else care to opine (and hopefully attempt to justify)
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 11 May 2011, at 4:58 p.m.
    • Anyone else care to opine (and hopefully attempt to justify)
      Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 11 May 2011, at 7:47 p.m.
      • Anyone else care to opine (and hopefully attempt to justify)
        Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 11 May 2011, at 8:20 p.m.
    • 41S-54 and 31P-41S-54
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 12 May 2011, at 2:19 a.m.
      • 41S-54 and 31P-41S-54
        Turz -- Friday, 13 May 2011, at 12:06 p.m.
        • 41S-54 and 31P-41S-54
          Nack Ballard -- Friday, 13 May 2011, at 5:08 p.m.
  • 31P-41S-54 XG-Rollout
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 12 May 2011, at 1:47 a.m.
    • 31P-41S-54, combining rollout results
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 12 May 2011, at 2:34 a.m.