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Backgammon Theory Help Request for Poker

Posted By: BenF
Date: Thursday, 12 May 2011, at 6:11 a.m.

In Response To: Backgammon Theory Help Request for Poker (Stanley E. Richards)

I see what you are trying to do but I feel like there are just too many other variables in the game because by nature not everything is on the table. I could see a highly skilled, successful HU player, that knows his opponent very well (his play style, his ranges, every little trick and leak in his opponents game) being able to put percentages on it but against a random opponent, online especially, I just don't see that as possible.

That being said I guess I will throw some numbers out there, it couldn't hurt! In my experience it is much easier then 20% to win having just 1/3rd of the chips. I would put the values at 1 chip is .001%, 100 chips is 1%, 400 chips is 15%, 800 chips is 40% 1200 chips is 47%+ So in your example my numbers would mean you wouldn't have had enough to call. An s shape on a graph.

It is an interesting idea for sure, I know I would love to be able to use more math to improve my poker game, I just don't see tournament equity being terribly useful here.

Ben

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