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RO says to basically flip a coin

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 16 May 2011, at 6:23 p.m.

In Response To: MCG didn't like this play from the finals (neilkaz)

OTB I hated leaving 7 gin numbers (as pointed out by MCG who felt that I deserved to be bound and gagged and dragged of to the corral after paying off anyhow).




White is Player 2

score: 12
pip: 78
15 point match
pip: 71
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCBC-B-----b---B-abbcbba-:1:-1:1:53:7:12:0:15:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout116/13 16/11eq: -0.0643
Player:
Opponent:		47.07% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
52.93% (G:2.07% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ±0.0027 (-0.0669...-0.0616) - [96.9%]
Duration: 11 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.0678 (-0.0036)
Player:
Opponent:		47.07% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
52.93% (G:1.39% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ±0.0026 (-0.0705...-0.0652) - [3.1%]
Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -0.0780 (-0.0137)
Player:
Opponent:		46.56% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
53.44% (G:1.55% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ±0.0028 (-0.0807...-0.0752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 00 second
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

A funny thing happened after I was hit with 11. Ralf got caught up in the moment (very rare for him) and played on for the G and rolled 66. Playing on seems correct but after the hideous 66 AtS he has to take a roll. Instead he recubed and when I didn't pass instantly he realized it and said that it was a small blunder Unfortunately the hitting dice that match mostly came from his cup and I missed a chance to probably win the event by failing to roll my hitting 6. (Oh well...can't complain as I certainly hit my share of 11/36 shots earlier in the weekend). Simply moving a spare from ace to deuce pt would make this R/T AtS.

is Player 1

score: 7
pip: 75
15 point match
pip: 50
score: 12

is Player 2
XGID=-CCBC-B----A-------cbbbbdA:1:-1:-1:00:7:12:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 90.479% (G:5.282% B:0.052%) 90.719% (G:10.238% B:0.015%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 9.521% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 9.281% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.8420 +1.2529
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.8681±0.0025 (+0.8655..+0.8706)
Redouble/Take:+0.7723 (-0.0958)±0.0053 (+0.7670..+0.7776)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1319)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 29.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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