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How can this win % be a drop ATS?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 21 May 2011, at 1:50 a.m.

In Response To: How can this win % be a drop ATS? (Stick)

I think RUT does have the scores reversed and is wondering why the trailer should pass ATS since his GWC in this game(17%) are higher than his MWC if he drops (11%). This is an apples and oranges comparison however and passing is correct since winning the game only ties the score (unless it's a g of course).

Drop makes it 1-6 Crawford with 11% MWC, take and lose loses the match with 0% MWC, take and win (after recubing) makes it 5-5 with 50% MWC, take and win a g (after the auto recube) wins the match with 100% MWC.

The trailer's takepoint is therefore around 22% less 100% of the trailer's gammon wins. XG says the g chances are just 1.4% so the trailer needs 20.6% winning chances to take the cube and he's well short of that.

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