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BGonline.org Forums
Some additional comments
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Moving from 20pt to 18pt - when and why? (mtuhtan)
Date: Sunday, 22 May 2011, at 6:38 p.m.
I played around with this position a little bit and have a couple more ideas.
I think my original theory that the main factors to consider here are your chances of getting a shot and your vulnerability to getting attacked is basically correct. 24/18 20/18 increases your chances of getting a shot on the midpoint, but gives up the shot equity that you get from keeping the "guard" on the 24pt. A guard doesn't usually help much if there are no vacant points in front of it, but here it's guarding one vacant point so it does have some value. Still, given the timing of the position, your shot is more likely to materialize on the midpoint than later during White's bearin. Thus the shot equity of the 18pt anchor should matter more.
As for getting attacked, something that didn't register with me when I first looked at this position is that the position of White's spares means that your guard is somewhat vulnerable where it is. Thus switching the blot to the 20pt doesn't substantially increase the risk. You can see this by modifying the position to weaken Blue's board; this magnifies White's attacking potential, so should swing you towards a safe play, but you should find that 24/18 20/18 stays on top or nearly on top. On the other hand, suppose you move White's spares on her 3pt and 4pt to form White's 9pt. Then you'll find that 13/7 13/11 is best. In the modified position, a Blue blot on the 20pt is much more vulnerable than a Blue blot on the 24pt. (Also the timing has changed so that the shot potential of the 24pt blot vs. the 18pt anchor swings a bit.)
By the way, here's a general tip on how to analyze positions. Looking at variants is good, but it's sometimes not enough to generate variants randomly. The basis principle I adhere to is, form theories and then test them. That is, come up with a verbal explanation first for what is going on, and then seek a variant that tests that theory. For example, try to complete the sentence, "I made my play because I thought that ... and my play would have been correct if ...". Then see if you can find a position where your play is in fact correct.
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