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The right way to measure which player played better in a match

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:19 p.m.

In Response To: The right way to measure which player played better in a match (Casper van der Tak)

Unbiasedness is the property Tim is describing in his OP. Total error difference in MWC is unbiased if given by a perfect bot. Currently, the only easy way to get unbiased skill estimates from real bots (gnubg and XG, specifically) is asking them for luck adjusted results. Those have some drawbacks: They aren't, in an obvious way, related to the error analyses done by the same bots, and they are much more noisy than the total error differences in MWC. I think for those reasons most players don't care about luck adjusted results. In this post (is that the thread you were referring to?) I hinted at a procedure to coax an unbiased estimate out of real bots that suffers much less from the mentioned drawbacks - it has other drawbacks though, namely that it is much more expensive to compute than the luck adjusted result (that shouldn't matter too much if you are doing a high quality analysis of the match anyway), and of course that it is not implemented in any bot.

Messages In This Thread

• The right way to measure which player played better in a match
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:29 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:56 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:19 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:35 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 12:09 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:02 a.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:57 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 2:30 a.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          sonrik -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:33 a.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:08 a.m.
            • purpose of EMG
              dlevy -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 2:09 p.m.
              • purpose of EMG
                Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
                • purpose of EMG
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:13 p.m.
                  • purpose of EMG
                    Marty Storer -- Monday, 6 June 2011, at 10:18 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:55 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:19 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:51 p.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:22 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              dlevy -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:24 p.m.
              • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:52 p.m.
              • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
                • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                  Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:00 p.m.
                  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 11:47 p.m.
                    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 9:14 p.m.
                    • Good answer, thank you! *NM*
                      Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 9:44 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              Jeremy Bagai -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:28 p.m.
          • t(error)
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:01 p.m.
            • t(error)
              Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:23 p.m.
  • Follow up abotu stat sig
    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Seth -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:07 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Phlegethos -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:15 p.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Stick -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:41 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:54 p.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Phlegethos -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 9:56 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:08 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:02 a.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Henrik Bukkjaer -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 10:18 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 1:52 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Henrik Bukkjaer -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 1:09 a.m.